Hugo van de Haar

Research & method · Interactive

The Demand Transition Framework.

Most European space firms are funded and credible, and still selling one-off systems to public buyers. This maps the distance from there to repeatable commercial revenue, on two axes. Click a position to read it, then reveal the two ways out.

Customer base  ·  institutional → recurring
BMaturing demandreal customers, still bespoke
DCommercial scalerthe demand gap is closed
AInstitutional projectwhere most begin, and stay
CProductiseda product, public buyers
Business model  ·  one-off project → repeatable product
productisation (A→C)  ·  demand maturation (A→B→D)

On the evidence. Two layers. The map itself comes from seven European firms coded in depth on public sources, the case study behind my ECSECO paper and the first edition of The Demand Side. Positions are ordinal, not measured coordinates, and the seven were chosen for analytical variety rather than to represent the sector. Underneath sits the breadth: 205 company observations across two datasets, 105 websites and 100 hiring panels, which test whether the pattern holds sector-wide. The depth gives the mechanism, the breadth shows it is not a handful of anecdotes. It supports claims about sequence and position, never causality. Full analysis in Research & method.

Where you sit is the first thing a teardown establishes.

A read of your commercial presence, placed on this framework, with the fixes that move you.

See a sample teardown Open The Field Coded on public sources. Positions are ordinal, not a ranking.